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The Preseason Favorite Is A Good Bet To Lose The Super BowlThe Preseason Favorite Is A Good Bet To Lose The Super Bowl

Preseason odds as of July and August for season referenced. Exact odds vary by date and sportsbook.Sources: Pro Football Reference, Sports Odds History Philadelphia+500176Missed 3+8751011.39.9 29-32+14459003.85.6 2008New England+3502211Missed 2017New England+2502913Lost SB 2016New England+6501314Won SB 25-28+8168115.56.9 2012Green Bay+6001411Lost Div 2007New England+2502916Lost SB 2010Green Bay+140076 2008Pittsburgh+180058 2011New York Giants+2000511 2015Green Bay+5001710Lost Div San Francisco+6501312Lost Conf Preseason odds as of July and August for season referenced. Exact odds vary by date and sportsbook.Sources: Pro-Football-Reference.com, Sports Odds History, Westgate 2012Baltimore+160066 New England+5001710Lost Div 2018New England+60014%—— 2010Indianapolis+8001110Lost WC 2015Denver+120085 2003New England+150068 Preseason Odds to Win SBMade Super Bowl?Average Wins That’s made for some pretty good David-vs.-Goliath Super Bowl theater, often featuring Brady and the Pats. New England took down the preseason-favorite Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI after coming into the 2001 season as a 60-to-1 longshot. The Giants upset the preseason-favorite Patriots after the 2007 and 2011 seasons, and the Eagles did it to them again in February. Not bad for NFL scriptwriters — or the NFC East. Oddly, despite being the preseason Super Bowl favorite at least seven other times since 2001, the Patriots won four of their five Super Bowls when they weren’t favored coming into the season.So if preseason favorites don’t win the Super Bowl, who does? It turns out that if you want your favorite NFL team to win it all, you should hope it enters the season as kind of likely to do so. Nine of the past 17 champions — the majority — have had the fourth to ninth best preseason odds, with an average around +1400 (14 to 1). If recent history is any indication, the Packers, Eagles, Saints, Chargers, Falcons and Jaguars are in an attractive position as we near Week 1. 2003Tampa Bay+800117Missed 2011New England+6001413Lost SB 2002St. Louis+350227Missed Keep this in mind, too: Preseason Super Bowl odds tell us more about the season that just ended than the one that’s about to start.6Much like strength-of-schedule rankings. There’s a fairly strong negative correlation (-0.75) between teams’ regular-season win totals the previous season and their rankings in the odds before the start of the next season — the more games a team won last year, the lower, or better, their preseason odds rank becomes. And there’s only a modest negative correlation (-0.42) between teams’ preseason odds rankings and their performance in the season that the odds purport to cover. NFL teams generally revert toward the mean, undermining the accuracy of preseason odds that are mostly based on what each team did last season.So have some fun analyzing this year’s preseason Super Bowl odds, agree or disagree, and compare them with FiveThirtyEight’s NFL projections in a couple of weeks if you’re curious to see how the betting markets and Elo differ. But above all, take them with a grain of salt — unless a team with the fourth to ninth best odds wins the Super Bowl. If that happens, you heard it here first. 2014New England+800114 The *kinda* favorites tend to win the Super BowlPreseason odds to win the Super Bowl versus season results, 2001-2017 The preseason favorite tends to lose in the Super BowlThe preseason Super Bowl favorite has made the Super Bowl nine times since 2001 — but won only twice 2004New England+600142 Preseason Odds to Win Super BowlSeason Results 7-9+1895319.69.0 2005Pittsburgh+120085 2007New York Giants+3000315 2001St. Louis+4002014Lost SB Source: Pro-Football-Reference.com, Sports Odds History 13-16+3150108.28.1 1+5202713.011.4 17-20+4083127.47.5 Seattle+5001710Lost Div The 2018 NFL season kicks off in two weeks, and for the third consecutive year — and eighth time since 2005 — the New England Patriots are the betting markets’ preseason favorites to win the Super Bowl.1Preseason Super Bowl odds are referenced as of July and August, the time frame when historical odds are most consistently available. If you expanded your preseason parameters, you could argue that the Patriots have been the preseason favorite at least three more times since 2005, including 2015 (favorites in March), 2013 (favorites in March, co-favorites with Denver and San Francisco in April) and 2012 (co-favorites with Green Bay in early September). The Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota Vikings and Pittsburgh Steelers are all currently tied as the next most favored, followed by the Green Bay Packers and the defending-champion Philadelphia Eagles.2According to the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook and as of publication. Odds change over time and vary among sportsbooks.Thanks to a Supreme Court decision in May that struck down a federal law prohibiting sports gambling in most states, topics like Super Bowl odds — and point spreads, money lines, over-unders, prop bets, parlays and teasers — are set to become a bigger part of the mainstream sports experience than ever before. Since the decision, Delaware, Mississippi and New Jersey have joined Nevada in offering full-scale legalized sports betting, with several states poised to follow.Against this backdrop, and as the start of the NFL season nears, we thought it worthwhile to explore how teams’ preseason odds to win the Super Bowl typically play out over the course of the season. Where on the odds board do Super Bowl winners and losers come from? And how do preseason favorites and almost-favorites usually fare?At +600 (6 to 1),3In the United States, “odds to win” are typically referenced in money-line (American) or fractional (traditional or British) terms. The Patriots, for example, are currently +600 (money-line odds) or 6/1 (fractional odds) to win Super Bowl LIII according to Westgate — commonly referred to as having “six-to-one” odds. That means that if a bettor wagers $100 on the Patriots to win it all, the bettor would win $600. the Patriots have an implied probability of 14.3 percent to win the Super Bowl,4Implied probabilities are presented here at face value, without adjusting for the underlying profit made by sportsbooks on the bets. Because of that take, the likelihood of each outcome is slightly overstated, and the sum of the implied probabilities for all teams in a given season is greater than 100 percent. highest in the NFL. Last year, the Patriots were +250 (2.5 to 1) before the start of the season, which translated to a 28.6 percent chance — they were, in other words, a considerably heavier favorite than they are today.The 2018 Rams, Vikings and Steelers are all +1000 (10 to 1), which suggests a 9.1 percent probability. Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills and Tampa Bay Buccaneers currently have this season’s longest odds — 200 to 1, or a 0.5 percent chance at a Super Bowl ring.In the past 17 NFL seasons, only two preseason favorites have gone on to hoist the Lombardi Trophy — the 2006 Indianapolis Colts (+600) and the 2016 Patriots (+650). But preseason favorites haven’t exactly fallen apart, either. Only four since 2001 have missed the playoffs,5The 2002 Rams, 2003 Buccaneers, 2005 Eagles (co-favorites with the Colts and Patriots) and 2008 Patriots. The 2008 Patriots won 11 games but still missed the playoffs. and in most seasons, the favorite or co-favorite actually made the Super Bowl. They just had a funny habit of losing when they got there. 2013Seattle+800113 2009New England+5001710Lost WC 2013Denver+6501313Lost SB 2005Indianapolis+5001714Lost Div 2006Indianapolis+6001412Won SB 2017Philadelphia+40002%17 But does recent history really tell us anything? We’re only dealing with 17 seasons here, so the sample size is small. Four champions have still come from among the top three most heavily favored teams heading into a given season. And we could just as well have seen a slew of preseason favorites win the Super Bowl — the 2001 Rams, 2004 Eagles, 2007 Patriots, 2011 Patriots, 2014 Seahawks and 2017 Patriots each came up only a play or drive short. 2009New Orleans+200059 SeasonPreseason Favorite(s)Money LineImplied Prob.WinsPlayoffs 21-24+6101016.26.8 2002Tampa Bay+120085 10-12+2414128.68.4 2+7701011.710.9 2004Philadelphia+5001713Lost SB SeasonSuper Bowl WinnerMoney LineImplied Prob.Implied Rank 2014Seattle+5001712Lost SB Preseason Odds to Win Super Bowl 2001New England+6000225 RankAverageWonLostPrior SeasonNew Season Denver+5001712Lost Div Where do Super Bowl champions come from?The majority of champions since 2001 had the fourth to ninth best preseason Super Bowl odds 2016New England+650131 2006Indianapolis+600141 4-6+13336310.58.7 read more

CWC 2018 River is rich in footballCWC 2018 River is rich in football

first_imgKnow as The Millionaires, Argentinean team River Plate is participating for the second time in the FIFA Club World CupRiver Plate beat Boca Juniors in the Copa Libertadores Final after two very controversial weeks.But know the Argentinean side will represent CONMEBOL in the FIFA Club World Cup that starts tomorrow.Known as The Millionaires, this team is based in the capital city of Buenos Aires in Argentina.The club was founded in 1901 and is celebrating its 117th anniversary.With 66 official championships, River Plate is one of the biggest clubs in Argentina having won the local tournament 36 times.River Plate v Boca Juniors - Copa CONMEBOL Libertadores 2018Match Preview: River Plate vs Boca Juniors Boro Tanchev – September 1, 2019 It is time for one of the most intense derby games in the world, as River Plate and Boca Juniors go head-to-head tonight at 22:00 (CET).They have only won the Copa Libertadores in four occasions.This is their second time they play in the FIFA Club World Cup. In 2015 they lost the title to Barcelona after a 3-0 defeat.They will have to wait in the Semifinals, on December 18th, for the winner of the matches between Al Ain, Team Wellington, and Espérance de Tunis.#CWC18: Get to know @CARPoficial – Know as The Millionaires, Argentinean team River Plate is participating for the second time in the @ClubWorldCups. pic.twitter.com/AmxG6vaLjW— Ronaldo.com (@ronaldocomint) December 11, 2018last_img read more

Germany set to deport two home grown terror suspectsGermany set to deport two home grown terror suspects

first_imgGermany said Tuesday it will deport two men arrested on suspicion of planning a terror attack, despite the fact that while their parents are foreigners, they were both born in the country.This is the first time in Germany’s history that such a decision has been taken, said a spokesman for the region’s interior ministry, quoted by the German news agency DPA.The country, like many European states, has historically subscribed to the idea of “jus sanguinis”-citizenship is determined by the nationalities of one or both parents and not by one’s place of birth.The decision also seems to be a first step in the country’s hardening anti-terrorism efforts, three months after a Tunisian national hijacked a truck and rammed it into a crowd at a Christmas market in Berlin, killing 12 people.The two men, a 22-year-old of Nigerian origin and a 27-year-old of Algerian descent, were arrested in a police raid on February 9 in the central city of Gottingen, the region’s interior minister Boris Pistorius said.He confirmed that the federal administration court approved the deportation order after a petition by his ministry.The men, classified as “dangerous” by police, were known to authorities through their affiliation with Salafists.In a series of raids, police found an Islamic State (IS) flag and seized a gun in Gottingen where both men lived with their families.However, police could not determine whether the suspects intended to use the firearm in a possible terror plot. Investigators then declined to pursue criminal proceedings.The men will likely be deported quickly and will be barred from Germany indefinitely, DPA reported.Germany has remained on high alert since the December 19 attack by Anis Amri in Berlin that also injured 56 people.Four days after the attack, Amri, 24, was shot dead by Italian police after travelling through several European countries before heading to Milan.The rampage in Berlin was claimed by the Islamic State group, which released a video in which Amri is shown pledging allegiance to IS chief Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.Germany had rejected Amri’s asylum application half a year earlier, but he could not be expelled because of Tunisian bureaucratic delays.That led German Chancellor Angela Merkel to urge North African states to step up border controls and expedite procedures to repatriate migrants whose asylum applications are rejected.last_img read more

32 killed in Tajikistan prison riot32 killed in Tajikistan prison riot

first_imgMap of Tajikistan locating Vakhdat Photo: AFPAt least 32 people were killed in a prison riot in Tajikistan, including 24 members of the Islamic State jihadist group and three guards, authorities said Monday.Five inmates and the three guards were initially killed by prisoners in the riot that erupted on Sunday evening, and the others died in clashes with security forces trying to restore order, the justice ministry said in a statement.The prison in Vakhdat, 17 kilometres (11 miles) east of the capital Dushanbe, holds 1,500 inmates.The ministry said the rioters first stabbed to death three guards, and then five other inmates “in order to intimidate” the others.They then took other prisoners hostage before opening fire on the jail’s medical facilities.”Following a reprisal operation, 24 members of this group were killed and 35 others arrested. The hostages were freed” and calm restored to the prison, the statement said.Two of the prisoners murdered by the rioters were well-known activists of the banned opposition group Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan, the local prison service said.Among the leaders of riot, authorities identified Bekhruz Gulmurod, the son of the former head of Tajik special forces who became a member of the IS leadership in Syria and was killed there in September 2017.The 20-year-old was sentenced to ten years in prison in July 2017 for attempting to join IS in Syria. He was previously detained at Dushanbe airport before boarding a flight to Istanbul.Authorities said the prison was now functioning normally, with the “situation currently under control.”The prison is a short drive from Dushanbe, with residential neighbourhoods nearby. It houses inmates convicted of various crimes, including terror and extremism charges, and is secured by armed guards.Families of inmates gathered near the prison on Monday to find out if their relatives were safe.In November 2018, another riot claimed by IS left 26 people dead in Khujand, a city in the northeast of the country. That riot was initiated by a former IS member seeking to spark a mass escape.Tajikistan, an impoverished mountainous country of just under 9 million people bordering Afghanistan, has suffered severe conflict since it gained independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.Tens of thousands of people were killed in Tajikistan during a five-year civil war in the 1990s when rebel groups including Islamists rose up against the government.Authorities in the majority-Muslim country have said that more than 1,000 Tajiks, including a high-ranking police officer who defected in 2015, joined IS in Syria and Iraq in recent years.In July 2018, an attack on foreign cycling tourists left four dead and two injured. The assault was widely attributed to IS, although the government has refused to acknowledge the link.last_img read more